Companies involved in fulfilment also play an important role during Black Friday, as online shoppers can choose between similar offers based on delivery terms. For instance, online stores can encourage buyers to complete purchases by offering delivery discounts to those who have abandoned their shopping carts.
In the United States, it is expected that nearly three-quarters of Black Friday purchases will be made online by 2025. In these cases, delivery terms are among the details that determine whether a purchase is made, and what constitutes a good offer versus an even better one.
According to a multi-source summary by Stowfly, which operates parcel pickup machines, consumers worldwide spent $74 billion on Black Friday in 2024, including $10.88 billion in the United States. Global sales are expected to reach $80–82 billion in 2025, with US consumers accounting for $12–12.5 billion of this total.
Online stores accounted for 70 per cent of this spending in 2024, a figure expected to rise to 73 per cent by 2025. Last year, discounts averaged 25–30 percent, and this is expected to remain unchanged or increase by a few percentage points in 2025. It is safe to assume that the most sought-after products will remain unchanged.
In 2024, online stores accounted for 70% of this expenditure, a figure expected to rise to 73% by end of 2025. Last year, discounts averaged 25–30 per cent, a figure which is not expected to change in 2025, although it may increase by a few percentage points. The most popular product categories (such as toys, jewellery, household appliances, personal care products, and electronics) and brands (such as Apple, Dyson, and Nintendo) are likely to remain unchanged.
China’s “Black Friday” event may foreshadow what companies can expect in other markets.
China has already experienced the first major shopping event of the holiday season: Singles’ Day, also known as Double 11, held on 11 November every year. Originally a day for singles, this commercial event has grown enormously thanks to the involvement of the e-commerce giant Alibaba. Black Friday, which was previously only celebrated in the United States in connection with Thanksgiving from the 1950s onwards, became a global event in the early 2010s with the arrival of European retailers.
This year’s Singles’ Day may foreshadow what is expected of Black Friday on 28 November, as Chinese consumers are struggling with high prices, just as their American and European counterparts are. The 2023 Double 11 shopping festival saw 1.695 trillion yuan ($238 billion) spent, highlighting the scale of the market driven by this event compared to Black Friday.
This includes money spent on both offline and online platforms. CNBC has cited data from Chinese market research company Syntum, which shows that this year’s turnover has exceeded that of 2024 by 14.2 percent. However, this falls short of the 26.6 per cent annual growth seen in 2023/2022. According to Chinese reports translated into English by the American news portal using Google Translate, buyers were looking for goods that offered real benefits rather than making impulse purchases.
Of particular interest to fulfilment companies is that the ten largest online stores, selling everything from fashion items to health products, received 30 per cent more orders than expected. Another interesting fact is that, during the shopping period which began with advertising in the first half of October, online retailers that had integrated artificial intelligence into their supply chains performed particularly well.
European shoppers are expected to behave just like their Chinese counterparts.
A survey by British marketing agency Klaviyo of 7,000 consumers worldwide, including 1,750 European shoppers, suggests that this year’s Black Friday shopping season will be different from what we have become accustomed to in recent years. Rather than intense shopping, consumers will spend a lot of time searching, comparing prices and planning how to spend their money.
According to the survey, e-retailers’ revenues could increase by 11.5% on Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2025 compared to 2024. Klaviyo measures internet users’ searches. Interest in product demonstrations has grown by 37% in recent months, suggesting that consumers are starting to explore what’s on offer earlier than before.
Klaviyo considers the role of artificial intelligence from a marketing perspective. According to Klaviyo, AI influences purchasing intentions ‘behind the scenes’. This will allow sellers to offer their products in a more sophisticated way than before, better tailored to customer segments and more personalised offers. The result is that peak season success now depends not only on good price/value offers, but also on accurately targeting buyers.
Shopping planning has become a kind of “science” among European buyers.
Black Friday promotions first appeared in Europe around ten years ago and have since become firmly established in consumers’ minds. According to a Klaviyo survey, 40% of consumers in Europe plan their end-of-year shopping with Black Friday and Cyber Monday in mind.
When it comes to gift giving, 61% of shoppers save up for end-of-year gifts in advance, and 67% only plan to buy gifts for three to ten people. 76% of Europeans target three to four shopping channels, not counting online options. 57% of shoppers will also use AI advisors.
Klaviyo advises e-retailers to display their product delivery terms in a prominent place. They should offer express delivery and use delivery options as a marketing tool in their own right, mentioning them in their advertisements as one of the reasons to buy.
The reason for abandoned online purchases, i.e., “abandoned carts,” is usually not that the buyer has a problem with the goods, but that they are browsing several online stores at once. In other words, it is not a loss of interest, but uncertainty that causes them to leave the online store before clicking the Buy button. Marketers see the antidote to this as urging the buyer to make a purchase, which may include offering fast delivery for a limited time only.
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